1️⃣ FII Activity & Positioning

FIIs have sold ₹3,200+ crore worth of equities in the cash segment, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

In the F&O segment, they continue to hold:

Net index short positions

Net index call short positions

Overall, FII positioning is more bearish compared to last month, indicating limited confidence in near-term upside.

2️⃣ Global Market Cues & Geopolitical Risk

Global sentiment has turned decisively negative as the Iran–US conflict enters its 6th day.

Key developments:

Iran has reportedly threatened action against ships in the Strait of Hormuz

Some insurers are reconsidering coverage for vessels using that route

Concerns over disruption in global oil supply have intensified

This has sharply impacted crude oil prices, affecting India’s crude basket and triggering panic across global markets.

Technically, most global indices are trading below their 20 EMA, which is a weak signal from a trend perspective.

3️⃣ Technical View – Nifty & Bank Nifty

Although markets recovered on Monday, sentiment remains fragile.

Nifty is expected to open significantly lower, potentially below the crucial 24,400 support zone

Charts currently reflect broad weakness

Market direction is highly dependent on geopolitical headlines

At present, news flow is driving price action more than technicals.

4️⃣ Key Levels to Watch

Nifty

Support: 24,400 (closing basis)

Intraday Support: 24,150

Resistance: 24,900 – 25,200

Bank Nifty

Support: 58,200 (closing basis)

Intraday Support: 57,500

Resistance: 59,900

5️⃣ Our Stance

Market conditions remain volatile and headline-driven.

Stay cautious

Maintain higher cash levels

Avoid chasing breakdowns

Wait for clarity on geopolitical developments

Strategy: Preserve capital first — trade only after stability returns.