1) FII Activity & Positioning

FIIs have sold ₹2,800+ crore in the cash segment. In derivatives, they have significantly reduced net index shorts and call shorts. Their positioning is now less bearish, though they remain net sellers. The PCR stands at 1.08 despite a strong market move, which is a positive sign. The Index Futures Long–Short Ratio has improved to 26.5, showing gradual strengthening in sentiment.

2) Global Cues

After Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement, global markets are showing strong momentum. Crude prices have started easing, but they are still above $94, which keeps inflation concerns intact.

3) Market Structure

Technically, the market looks positive. Nifty is trading above its EMA20 and showing a positive MACD divergence on the daily timeframe. Bank Nifty continues to outperform and is also sustaining above its EMA20.

4) Key Levels to Watch

Nifty has support at 23,800–23,500 and resistance at 24,250.

Bank Nifty has support at 54,900–54,100 and resistance at 56,300.

The 50 EMA is acting as a key resistance zone for both indices.

5) Strategy & Stance

Although the market has recovered sharply, the key trigger remains crude oil sustaining below $94. Until then, the stance remains cautiously optimistic. Focus should be on selective opportunities with strict stop-loss discipline.