1) FII Activity & Positioning

FIIs have sold more than ₹8,600 crore in the cash market, continuing their cautious stance. In the derivatives segment, they have reduced net index futures shorts, net index call shorts, and net index put longs. Although their overall positioning remains slightly bearish, the Index Futures Long–Short Ratio has improved to around 22%, showing gradual reduction in bearish aggression. The overall PCR stands at 1.08, indicating a cautious but stabilizing market sentiment.

2) Global Cues

Before the deadline set by Donald Trump, Iran has announced a ceasefire, which is expected to boost global equity markets. This positive development may lead to a strong gap-up opening, potentially above 500 points. However, sustaining higher levels will be key. Additionally, the RBI policy decision is due, and while a rate cut is unlikely, commentary on inflation and growth will play an important role in market direction.

3) Market Structure

Over the last three sessions, the market has shown signs of bottom formation. With the ceasefire announcement, the market appears to have established a base near 22,200. Technically, the structure looks constructive, with Bank Nifty showing relative strength compared to Nifty.

4) Key Levels to Watch

Nifty is expected to open above 23,800 as indicated by GIFT Nifty. Immediate support is at 23,500 and resistance at 24,100 on an intraday basis. For Bank Nifty, support is placed at 52,100 and resistance at 54,100. Sustaining above opening levels will be crucial for further upside.

5) Strategy & Stance

Focus remains on crude oil movement; Brent needs to cool off and sustain below $94 for stability. With multiple triggers like ceasefire, RBI policy, and the start of result season, markets may offer opportunities. The approach shifts to selective buying with strict stop-loss discipline while remaining alert to volatility.